Sheikh Hasina, Intelligence Agencies and Her Last Hours -Abu Tahir Mustakim

The controversial chapter of Sheikh Hasina’s rule in Bangladesh has concluded. After 15 years of contentious governance, the female leader faced a student-led uprising and mass public discontent, ultimately leading her to flee the country. Despite her intentions to cling to power until the very end, standing on the bloodshed of hundreds, she was compelled to seek refuge in India. Her departure followed a series of dramatic events.

Among the foreign missions of the Indian Intelligence Agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), Bangladesh has always been of utmost importance. Thus, losing control over Bangladesh was a significant concern for India. Over the last decade and a half, RAW’s primary challenge was managing the BDR rebellion and ensuring the Awami League’s victory in the 2014 elections. RAW succeeded in these challenges and, once again, played a crucial role in bringing the Awami League to power in the 2024 elections.

Diplomatic sources in Delhi reveal that after the US visa policy was announced in May 2023, Sheikh Hasina and her sister, Sheikh Rehana, had a lengthy meeting with the then-chief of RAW and two former Indian high commissioners during a visit to the Maldives. The plan to counteract the United States was devised in that meeting, and RAW successfully executed it. Following the January 7, 2024, election, both Sheikh Hasina and RAW seemed confident.

During her final visit to Delhi, Sheikh Hasina signed three significant agreements with India as a token of gratitude for RAW’s support. Opposition parties in Bangladesh claim that these agreements heavily favoured India. The deals included the control and management of Mongla port, a rail corridor through Bangladesh connecting Assam and Tripura, and the Teesta River Project.

A source within the Bangladeshi bureaucracy revealed that the file on the rail corridor agreement is not with the Bangladesh High Commission in Delhi or the Ministry of Railways but with former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina herself. This agreement included a clause stating, “Bangladeshi authorities will not have the right to inspect or be informed about what India transports via the railway. However, if Indian Railways faces any security threat within Bangladesh’s territory, Indian security forces will cooperate with Bangladeshi security forces.” This clause effectively permits Indian troops to enter Bangladesh, leading many to believe that the agreement paves the way for an Indian military presence in the country.

China was displeased when these agreements were leaked. They suspected that military equipment would be transported through Bangladesh’s rail corridor to bolster India’s northeastern defences against China. This displeasure was evident during Sheikh Hasina’s subsequent visit to China, where she did not receive the expected warmth, and a cold reception ensued.

As the Chinese analysis of Sheikh Hasina’s visit took place at RAW’s headquarters in Delhi, student protests erupted in Dhaka over the quota system. A young Bengali RAW official was assigned to monitor the situation closely.

RAW’s senior officers were dismayed upon receiving reports from the Bengali official on July 17. The intelligence indicated that the police high command had ordered the shooting of unarmed students in Dhaka. Initially, it was believed to be the work of followers of former Inspector General of Police Benazir Ahmed. However, it was later confirmed that the directive to open fire came from the highest levels of the government, accompanied by hate-filled rhetoric. The situation quickly spiralled out of control after the police attempted to suppress the protests with gunfire. Within 24 hours, the unrest had escalated, unsettling both governments in Dhaka and Delhi. Sheikh Hasina’s daughter, Saima Wazed Putul, discussed the dire situation with several Indian diplomats, describing it as “worse than the BDR rebellion.”

RAW’s chief then had a direct phone conversation with Sheikh Hasina, where the imposition of a curfew was discussed. A message was sent from Bangladesh to India, claiming that Jamaat-e-Islami and Islami Chhatra Shibir had infiltrated the movement after Friday prayers.

During the phone call, RAW suggested imposing a curfew and promised to send a team to assist. Sheikh Hasina agreed but sought information about the military’s stance from the army intelligence agency DGFI. However, RAW had already assured Hasina about the army’s loyalty, as a segment of the DGFI had essentially become RAW’s Bangladesh cell following the 2009 BDR rebellion. This cell provided India with critical information about the Bangladesh Army and influenced military decisions, including arms purchases from India.

RAW and Sheikh Hasina believed that a curfew and internet shutdown would control the situation. However, on Saturday, the curfew was defied in Dhaka, and reports of over 50 deaths reached Delhi. RAW also discovered that a faction within the Awami League silently supported the movement. In response, Indian policymakers convened several meetings in Delhi and Kolkata. Journalists monitoring the situation in Bangladesh and two former Indian diplomats who had attended the Maldives meeting were consulted. Many believed that Sheikh Hasina’s days were numbered. Nevertheless, RAW’s chief sent a message advising, “Use the experience of Kashmir. If necessary, create another Kashmir. But keep Sheikh Hasina in power.”

Following these instructions, a RAW team arrived at Tejgaon Airport in Dhaka on Saturday. They met with officials from DGFI, the Detective Branch of Police, and other intelligence agencies. Particular attention was paid to the US and Chinese embassies. It was decided to implement a strategy similar to the repression seen in Kashmir in 2019 to ensure the success of Dhaka Mission 2024. All phone calls were monitored, with special attention to junior army officers. Teams were formed to conceal the dead bodies, and joint forces began house-to-house searches reminiscent of those in Kashmir.

RAW officials were stationed on the ground in Dhaka, closely observing the situation. Anti-India rumours circulated in Dhaka, including claims that some individuals were overheard speaking Hindi with security forces. Following the issuance of a High Court verdict and a government notification, Sheikh Hasina regained control of the situation. Consequently, on July 24, RAW’s team was instructed to cease direct operations in Dhaka and withdraw from the ground by July 25. A support team continued to provide guidance from Delhi. Since mid-July, nearly 400 people have died in Bangladesh as peaceful protests led by students escalated into violence after police and armed forces responded with a brutal crackdown, including shoot-on-sight orders. At least 11,000 people have been arrested. Indiscriminate killings, disappearances, and mass arrests by police forces persisted under the curfew imposed by the army. In response, students began holding various programs, including funeral prayers for the martyrs. As the security forces continued their brutal tactics, the protesters unified around a single demand: the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

On August 3, student protest organisers called for Hasina’s resignation in Dhaka, leading rallies with anti-government slogans. Thousands protested peacefully in the capital, demanding justice for over 600 students and others killed in the previous month. However, violence erupted at similar events across the country.
On August 4, renewed anti-government protests claimed the lives of nearly 100 people, including at least 14 police officers. Protesters called for an interim government and the ouster of Sheikh Hasina after the military imposed an indefinite curfew from Sunday evening, affecting Dhaka and other divisional and district headquarters. Officials also announced the shutdown of courts, railways, and other public spaces. Despite the nationwide curfew and internet shutdown, protesters in several cities defied orders and joined the “March to Dhaka” rally organised by the anti-discrimination students’ movement. The Bangladesh Army’s pleas for compliance with curfew orders were ignored.

Clashes between protesters and police forces occurred across Bangladesh as the non-cooperation movement gained momentum. At least six people were killed during clashes in Dhaka, with key organisers calling for sit-in protests until Hasin’s government fell. A National Security Committee meeting convened on Sunday morning, bringing together the embattled prime minister, the country’s top three military chiefs, senior security officials, and police. The atmosphere was tense.

Pressure on the prime minister had been building for weeks as anti-government protests raged across the country. Hundreds had been killed in the worst violence Bangladesh had seen since the 1971 war of independence. On Sunday alone, at least 90 people lost their lives, mostly demonstrators shot by security forces, with a growing number of police killed by the crowds.
Officials reported that Sheikh Hasina wanted to keep “two options” open. While preparations were made for her to leave the country, she aimed to remain in power until the very last moment—by force if necessary.

However, military leaders disagreed. On Sunday, ordinary citizens and protesters began mingling with field-level soldiers and army officers across the country. After reviewing the situation, senior military officers realised that control was slipping away.

During the meeting, the military leadership individually informed the prime minister that soldiers could not shoot at civilians, although they could provide security support to the police. It later emerged that senior police chiefs were also concerned about running out of ammunition. Despite these warnings, Sheikh Hasina refused to listen, and no one dared to disagree with her directly. Security forces feared that the situation could escalate into a civil war. If they attempted to suppress the protesters, another bloodbath seemed inevitable. Therefore, army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman decided to speak with the prime minister once more.

The three service chiefs met with Sheikh Hasina on Sunday evening, explaining that the situation on the ground was becoming increasingly volatile. They warned her that large crowds were expected in Dhaka on Monday morning and that they could not guarantee the safety of her residence. By Monday morning, large crowds had already begun moving towards Dhaka. General Zaman returned to Ms. Hasina’s residence to emphasise the gravity of the situation. Curfew orders were being defied, and violence had already erupted.

As police forces were withdrawn from many parts of Dhaka, General Zaman informed the prime minister that they could only delay the crowd from reaching Ganabhaban, the official residence of the prime minister, for an hour or so at best. At this critical juncture, the military chiefs decided to involve family members. Police and military officials held talks with Sheikh Hasina’s sister, Rehana Siddiq, in an attempt to persuade her elder sibling to leave. Sheikh Rehana spoke with Sheikh Hasina, but reliable sources reported that the prime minister was determined to cling to power.

Later, Ms. Hasina’s son Sajeeb and daughter Saima, who both reside abroad, spoke to her on the phone, insisting that she should leave. Throughout these family negotiations, the army chief, who is related to Ms. Hasina by marriage, was reportedly present. “We in the family begged her; we urged her, ‘This is the mob; they are out for violence, and they will kill you. We need to get you to safety.’ Only however long it took the mob to get there, that was how much time she had. They just left without any preparation.”

On Monday morning, sources reported that Sheikh Hasina contacted government officials in Delhi to request sanctuary. India, a staunch ally throughout her long career, advised her to leave. A day earlier, Washington had reportedly informed Indian foreign ministry officials that time was up for Ms. Hasina—she had run out of options. A senior military official stated that only the Special Security Force, the Presidential Guard Regiment, and a few senior military officers at army headquarters were aware when Sheikh Hasina signed the resignation letter and boarded the military helicopter that would take her away from her residence. The entire operation was carried out in secrecy.

Around 10:30 AM local time, authorities shut down the internet to prevent news of Sheikh Hasina’s movements from spreading on social media. The internet was only reactivated after her departure. According to senior army sources, arrangements were made to ensure Sheikh Hasina’s safe passage to the airport. Concerns about potential attacks on her convoy led to the decision to use a helicopter instead of a road convoy. Even at the moment of departure, Sheikh Hasina was reportedly reluctant to board the helicopter, according to her son.

They were flown from Ganabhaban to a waiting Bangladeshi Air Force C-130 Hercules aircraft that had been prepared in advance.

Sajeeb Wazed Joy later stated that he believed they were flown to Agartala, the capital of India’s eastern state of Tripura, before being flown from there to Delhi. Indian officials had already been approached and had agreed to facilitate her transit via this route. Other reports suggest that she was taken by helicopter to an airport in Dhaka and then flown to Delhi.
Regardless of the route taken, by approximately 1:30 PM local time, Ms. Hasina and her sister were transferred from the helicopter to the aircraft that transported them to Delhi, officials confirmed. Back in Dhaka, the internet was restored, and celebrations erupted across Bangladesh, marking the end of Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule.